SHFE tin prices opened slightly higher in the night session and fluctuated downward, but the stimulus to spot market transactions was limited. [SMM Tin Morning News]

December 16, 2025 SMM Tin Morning Brief:

Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2601) opened slightly higher in the night session, then fluctuated downward, closing at 324,850 yuan/mt, down 1.88% from the previous trading day.

Macro: (1) On Monday, Nvidia (NVDA.O) released a series of new open-source AI models, stating these models will be faster, cheaper, and smarter than its previous products. Nvidia is primarily known for providing chips used by companies like OpenAI to train their proprietary models and profit from them. However, Nvidia also offers a significant number of its own models, covering areas from physics simulation to autonomous vehicles. These models are provided as open-source software for researchers or other companies to use; for example, companies like Palantir Technologies have integrated Nvidia's models into their products. Nvidia announced the third-generation "Nemotron" large language model on Monday, mainly targeting tasks such as writing and programming. The smallest model, Nemotron 3 Nano, was released that day, with two larger versions expected to launch in H1 2026. Meanwhile, reports indicate that Meta Platforms (META.O) is considering a shift to proprietary models, making Nvidia one of the primary providers of open-source models in the US. (2) Jingjia Micro announced that the edge-side AI SoC chip CH37 series, independently developed by its controlling subsidiary Wuxi Chengheng Microelectronics Co., Ltd., has successfully completed key stages including tape-out, packaging, chip return, and power-on. After power-on, tests confirmed that its basic functions and core performance indicators (including computing efficiency, module coordination, and stability) have met the design requirements, marking a phased breakthrough for the project. Subsequently, Chengheng Micro will accelerate efforts in chip power optimization and comprehensive performance testing to ensure the product meets mass production conditions as soon as possible. (3) According to sources familiar with the plans, Ford Motor (F.N) is planning to repurpose an EV battery plant in Kentucky to produce battery cells for power grid energy storage, in response to a sharp decline in US EV sales and to utilize idle EV manufacturing capacity. Last week, Ford ended its joint venture with South Korean battery manufacturer SK On and subsequently took over two battery plants in Glendale, Kentucky. Sources stated that only one of the plants is currently operational, and Ford will shift its output to grid-scale energy storage batteries. The plant previously supplied batteries for Ford's electric pickup, the F-150 Lightning, but production of the F-150 Lightning has been suspended since a fire at a key supplier in September.

Fundamentals: (1) Supply-side disruptions: Tin ore supply is tightening overall in major production areas like Yunnan. Most smelters are expected to maintain relatively stable production in December. (2) Demand side: Orders have decreased significantly due to weak demand in the consumer electronics and home appliance markets. Downstream procurement remained cautious, with high prices significantly suppressing actual consumption. The boost from emerging sectors was limited: although the increase in AI computing power and the growth in PV installations drove some tin consumption, their current contribution scale remains small and insufficient to offset the decline in consumption from traditional sectors.

Spot market: During yesterday's daytime session, SHFE tin fluctuated around 326,000 yuan/mt, with a small number of downstream and end-user enterprises conducting just-in-time procurement. However, most enterprises maintained a wait-and-see attitude. Subsequently, the night session's downward fluctuations provided limited stimulus to market transactions, with only some enterprises placing low-priced orders.

[Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice. The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research or decision-making recommendations. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this to replace independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to Shanghai Metals Market.]